Iran's November oil output at 3.818m bpd: OPEC

Iran's November oil output at 3.818m bpd: OPEC

Iran's November oil output at 3.818m bpd: OPEC

Brent crude futures were up 47 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $62.91 a barrel at 11:49 a.m. (1649 GMT).

The IEA forecast that non-OPEC supply - which includes the US - was set to rise by 600,000 barrels a day in 2017, and 1.6 million barrels a day in 2018.

The forecast for 2018 for non-OPEC supply is "associated with significant uncertainties", particularly with regard to developments in United States shale oil.

Analysts and other experts have spent the past year on one hand insisting the global glut is over and on the other worrying that producing nations are simply pumping too much for the market to absorb, and the IEA contributed to this schizophrenia by increasing its forecast for 2018 production by nations outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and simultaneously expressing confidence the cartel will significantly curb global oversupply.

With cash pouring into the US shale oil industry, the United States is on track to deliver up to 80 percent of the world's oil production gains through 2025, the IEA estimates. Last month, the EIA expected a 720,000 bpd year-over-year increase to 9.95 million bpd.

Crude Oil at Desert Crude Oil

In November at a meeting in Vienna, OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to extend their oil output cuts until the end of 2018, giving markets a further boost.

"Forties pipeline operator Ineos declared force majeure on crude deliveries following Tuesday's discovery of leaks in the pipeline, indicating that repairs could take several weeks", US investment bank Jefferies said.

According to OPEC's latest monthly report published on December 12, oil production in Iran stood at 3.818 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, falling 2000 bpd from 3.820 million bpd in October, based on secondary sources.

"Preliminary weekly data suggests that USA production increased further into early December". Recently, US drilling activity and well completion rates have picked up again, suggesting higher production to come in a few months.

The IEA believes total supply growth could exceed demand next year. "In the first half [of the year], the surplus could be 200,000 barrels before reverting to a deficit of about 200,000 barrels in the second half, leaving 2018 as a whole showing a closely balanced market".

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