Profit Taking Eats At Crude Oil Gains

Oil Surplus Returns       Both OPEC and IEA forecasts suggest stockpiles will grow again in 1H                          
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Oil Surplus Returns Both OPEC and IEA forecasts suggest stockpiles will grow again in 1H .cha

EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from earlier this week estimated that USA crude oil production averaged 9.3 million bpd in the whole of 2017, and 9.9 million bpd in December alone.

"Inventories ended 2017 9.3 percent above the five-year average, a stark contrast to the 35.6 percent surplus seen at the end of 2016", Oil Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig said in a statement emailed to UPI. In both 2018 and 2019, EIA expects total global production to be slightly greater than global consumption, with USA production increasing faster than production in any other country, contributing to modestinventory builds.

That was also close to the previous day's high of US$69.37 a barrel, which was the highest level since an intra-day spike in May 2015 and, before that, in December 2014.

Much of the production growth will be concentrated in the Permian Basin, the largest US oilfield stretching across Texas and New Mexico, said John Staub, the EIA director of the office of petroleum, natural gas and biofuels analysis. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude in NY was $US62.67 a barrel, on Tuesday, the highest in since December 2014.

"The lower draw in crude oil stocks, combined with the strong builds in product stocks is bearish news for prices".

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices reached a December 2014 high of $63.67 a barrel earlier on.

"Oil prices have been undeniably bullish this week despite the lingering concerns over the current bull rally running out of steam".

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On the data front, the number of rigs operating in USA oil fields rose by 10 to 752 this week, the biggest increase since June, oilfield service firm Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday.

Most of the remaining growth will come from offshore wells in the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with seven new projects expected to come online by the end of 2019, the agency said.

Worldwide, the EIA sees oil consumption rising by about 1.7 mb/d in both 2018 and 2019, led by stronger demand from China and India.

The national average price this summer should peak in August at $2.63.

The U.S. Energy Department expects production will blow through 10 million bpd in the next few months, en route to 11 million bpd by next year, rivaling Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia.

That's bad news for the United States coal industry and Donald Trump ambitions to restore coal's fortunes. The agency expects production to rise by 6.9 bcf per day, 9.3 percent, in 2018, and by 2.6 bcf, 3.2 percent, in 2019.

"Coal's forecast generation share falls from 30% in 2017 to slightly lower than 30% in 2018 and 28% in 2019". EIAs January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $60/b in 2018 and $61/b in 2019.

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