Trump claims win in US House race, but Democrat surge looms

APTOPIX-Ohio-Primary

Trump claims win in US House race, but Democrat surge looms

Even though this is a district that Trump carried by 13 points in 2016, it's looking dicey for the GOP now. They must re-elect nearly all of their 36 incumbents whose districts are R+7 or less, put special effort into the eight open seats rated toss-ups or lean Republican and whose PVI is even or tilts Republican, and go hard after the handful of open Democratic seats that lean Republican. The seat has been held by Republicans since it was created in 1980. The GOP-held 5th District looks competitive too - Republicans have won an aggregate 51 percent vs. 47 percent for Democrats.

"Obviously, this is a tough environment for Republicans", said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC devoted to defending House Republicans' 23-seat majority.

Trump mocked Democratic optimism this week on Twitter, noting the GOP has a lopsided record in federal special elections.

Mr Trump proclaimed victory for Republican state senator Troy Balderson in Tuesday's race in OH for a seat in the House of Representatives, despite it being too close to call.

"Democrats' morale was the big victor last night", tweeted congressman Keith Ellison, the deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee. That's up from 28 earlier in the year.

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"The numbers show a Democratic energy in the electorate that Republicans don't have, plus an advantage with independents that Democrats haven't had in a decade", said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary.

And in the 3rd, Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler had just 41 percent of the vote to the leading Democrat's 37 percent.

Trump has repeatedly bashed Pelosi, calling her - along with fellow frequent target Rep. Maxine Waters - "the unhinged FACE of the Democrat Party" and repeatedly using her name to throw shade at Democratic challengers in key races.

The good news for Republicans is that in 36 of these 50 most vulnerable GOP districts, Republican incumbents are seeking re-election, most with strong district ties and name identification and more cash on hand than their Democratic opponents. Ossoff got 81 percent of Clinton's total.

"Our base is happy with what President Trump and the Republican Congress is doing", Bliss said.

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