"From about, maybe NY and northward, that's all above a 40 percent confidence, so that's between a 40 and 50 percent chance that temperatures will be above average", says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Maryland. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern". The greatest chance for warmer than normal winter weather is in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Montana, northern Wyoming and western North Dakota. Weather experts predict a warmer than normal winter in Kansas.
The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said. They also said the El Nino will have a 70 percent to 75 percent chance of happening.
"NOAA" s Winter 2018 temperature outlook for the United States.
It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.
In fact, Halper said, nowhere in the U.S.is expected to be colder than normal; continuing a national trend over the past several years.
"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter", said Mike Halpert, who is the deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.
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Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.
Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.
NOAA's seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. But in case you need some talking down, a new forecast from NOAA says that at the very least, it won't be a nightmare this year.
NOAA's winter forecast comes as the mercury is finally beginning to dip across most of the country after a summer that lasted well into October in the eastern United States, with temperatures into the 80s and even 90s. The next update will be posted on November 15.