Early season tropical development possible in Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center says a disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche has a 60 percent chance of development

The National Hurricane Center says a disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche has a 60 percent chance of development

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

South Mississippi could see some rain this week from a tropical disturbance now stewing in the Bay of Campeche. While the broad area of low pressure remains disorganized- even if it became a depression- impacts remain the same.

There is also relatively low wind shear, or changing of wind speed and/or direction with altitude, over the Bay of Campeche, which provides a conducive environment for tropical features to organize.

A tropical storm off Mexico has a 60 percent chance of a cyclone formation in the next two days.

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If this system were to strengthen and receive a name, it would be called "Barry". Should the system remain offshore, there is a higher chance of it developing into a tropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico or southern Texas over the next couple of days.

A frontal boundary will stall in the area by mid week, helping to draw up this deep moisture, and possibly produce some heavy rainfall in or near the region.

Rules can be broken as Subtropical Storm Andrea showed after it's pre-season May debut and 91L may be an early bird set to develop in an unconventional location.

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